"X has tended to follow Y in the past therefore if X occurs again we know that there is a N% radcliffe of Y. CPI ex food and energy was posted at 1.8% in Feb, an increases from 1,7% posted in january. Usually those predictions are based on what has happened in the past whether it be from hard data of the fruits of experience.

EUR/USD breaks the 1.3070 and jumps above the 1.3100 on US data - The EUR/USD has broken the 1.3070 important resistance and it is rising above the 1.3100 level and pushing fresh intraday high at 1.3145 after the better than expected Feb US current account and CPI data. Whichever method someone uses to trade the financial markets, whether it be mechanical, automated or discretionary, they will almost always be involved in making predictions about the future. The USD has sold off following the US Data releases and ahead of the FOMC Feb current account has reduced its deficit from the 181.3 billions to 132.8 usd billions, a better than expected data of 137.1 billion of current account deficit, reaching the smallest deficit in 5 Years.CPI was posted at 0.4% between January and February and 0.2% year over year.

Normally past patterns are extrapolated into the future, as in.